The return of Indian migrants from the GCC countries will affect the state of Kerala badly in the coming days, according to Ambassador K.P. Fabian, former Indian diplomat who was the head of the Gulf Division in the Ministry of External Affairs and coordinated the evacuation Indian nationals from the Kuwait and Iraq way back in 1990. He was delivering the Special Lecture on “Downsizing Migrant workers in GCC countries Impending challenges for Kerala” in a web-interaction organized by the Inter University Centre for Social Science Research and Extensions (IUCSSRE) and the Centre for Indian Diaspora Studies (CIDS) of Mahatma Gandhi University. Ambassador K.P. Fabian said that “the amount of remittance will go down significantly and those who come back from the Gulf will need the state support to settle down and to find jobs. He noted that this is the first time India and other man-power exporting countries are facing such a problem of huge magnitude. “Kerala accounting for about 45% of the Indian work force in the GCC will be affected more than other states. The State needs to study this matter and work out a plan in good time,” he said.
Ambassador Fabian also sounded alarm at the strategies of downsizing migrants in the GCC states. Pointing to the efforts underway in Kuwait to reduce the number of expatriates in the population from the current level of 70 per cent to 30 per cent, he said that this might trigger similar moves in other GCC states also. The reduction is to be effected over years. Apart from the concern over having too many foreigners in and the need to find jobs for the young citizens, the stronger reason is the declining oil income on which Kuwait is heavily dependent, with its budget for 2020-21 having deficit equal to 28 per cent of its GDP. He said while Kuwait is the most dependent on oil income, other states in the GCC too are facing serious economic problems. There is already a move to reduce the number of foreign workers in the entire GCC. Ambassador Fabian said that the work force in the GCC has about 15 million from South Asia and India has the largest share therein, as many as 8 million. This underscores the need for urgent initiatives from states like Kerala, he added.
Dr. Irudaya Rajan, Professor at the Centre for Development Studies, contested the projections of the number of return migrants from countries like Kuwait and said that a significant number of expatriates who are working in low paid jobs are unlikely to return and cannot be replaced easily. He said that replacing the hardworking Indians with relatively low-wages is easier said than done. To fully replace them will be a formidable task which, he said, will not be so comfortable in the present circumstances. Dr. Rajan noted that even if the proposed cap reduces to 15 per cent as the Kuwaiti legislation proposes, only 3 lakh Indians are likely to return and it would not have a major impact on either Indian emigration to Kuwait or decline in remittances. He also added that these are categories of jobs that Kuwaiti nationals might not be able to step in and occupy easily. Dr. Rajan said that Kerala does not have to worry too much about return migration as this has been happening over years without much let up. They had returned from the Gulf in large numbers during the Gulf War of 1990-91, the global recession of 2008 and after the enactment of ‘Nitaqat’ Law by Saudi Arabia in 2011. Yet, the remittances continued to be on the rise. There would again be replacement of jobs of one kind or other with a shift in business and market strategies, he said.
Shajahan Madampat, a UAE-based cultural critic and commentator said that notwithstanding the initial fears of a high magnitude exodus from the Gulf with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation does not seem to have resulted in a massive flow of Indian nationals. As the pandemic situation in the GCC countries is getting under control, this will surely enhance the confidence of the migrants in the coming days, he said. Dr. B. Ekbal, Dr. M.H. Ilias, Dr. KB Usha, Dr. Lirar and others spoke and interacted with the guest speakers. K.M. Seethi, Director, IUCSSRE, welcomed the session and Dr. Mathew Varghese, IUCSSR Adjunct Faculty, and Parvathy Devi researcher on migration coordinated the session.
