By Lirar Pulikkalakath and Aleena Chacko
Photo credit: RABIH DAHER/AFP via Getty Images.
Introduction
West Asia sadly remains a tinder box of interrelated and multiple conflicts that could explode at any moment if the state and non-state actors continue their aggressiveness. The recent conflict represents an extension of a protracted political struggle and territorial disputes between Israelis and Palestinians. It is deeply rooted in historical, religious, political, and territorial disagreements and interests of external actors. Its roots can be traced back to the late 19th century when nationalist sentiments began to rise among both Jewish and Arab populations. A critical turning point occurred in 1948 with the establishment of Israel, which led to the first Arab-Israeli war and the subsequent displacement of many Palestinians, referred to as Al Nakba. Subsequent hostilities, including the Six-Day War in 1967, resulted in Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem, further heightening tensions. Peace initiatives, including the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, have encountered substantial obstacles, particularly regarding issues of borders, refugees, and the status of Jerusalem. The conflict continues to be unresolved, marked by cycles of violence and a persistent political deadlock, impacting both regional and global stability. Over the period, when many old state actors like Egypt and Jordan have disappeared from the picture, some new non-state actors, mainly the fringe organizations of Iran, have come to the forefront of the fight against Israel. Now, Gaza and Lebanon have become the main battlefields as the death toll has reached 41,802 in Gaza and more than 2,000 in Lebanon while we write the paper. The number of injured people is nearly one lakh in Gaza alone. In Israel also, at least 1,139 people were killed in the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, and more than 200 people were taken captive (Mccready & Maziar, 2024). As one of the important neighbouring countries of Israel, Lebanon has been a key player in defining the nature of the conflict between Israel and different Palestinian organizations.
Lebanon, situated on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, shares its northern and eastern borders with Syria and its southern border with Israel. The country’s diverse topography, which includes mountains, valleys, and a Mediterranean coastline, enhances its strategic relevance for trade and military access. Lebanon’s historical relevance is further highlighted by its role as a centre of commerce, culture, and religion, hosting a mix of different religious communities. When it comes to the modern political history of the country, the civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1990, along with ongoing conflicts with Israel, has profoundly influenced its political landscape and continues to affect its role in West Asian geopolitics. Lebanon’s distinctive cultural fusion and strategic position render it a vital participant in regional affairs. Its position is critical not only for regional stability but also as a symbol of the complexities within the Arab-Israeli conflict, representing broader themes of nationalism, sectarianism, and external influence in West Asia.
This article explores the role of Lebanon in the unending and complex Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It examines the historical, social, economic, political, and security dimensions that intertwine the fates of countries in West Asia. One of the important social aspects of Lebanon is that the country has been hosting thousands of refugees from neighbouring countries, including Palestinians, Syrians, and Iraqis, etc., for decades. The country is also a battleground for regional power dynamics and serves as a unique case study in understanding the broader implications of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This paper analyses Lebanon’s historical ties to Palestine, the impact of the Lebanese civil war, the influence of Hezbollah, and the ongoing ramifications of the conflict on Lebanese society and politics. It aims to foster a deeper understanding of how Lebanon’s modern history and geopolitics are inextricably linked to the broader dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This study aims to provide insights into the interconnections between Lebanon and the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, highlighting the need for nuanced perspectives in addressing peace and stability in the troubled region.
Lebanon’s Civil War and Its Aftermath
Lebanon occupies a vital historical and geopolitical role in West Asia, playing a significant part in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Its heterogeneous population, comprising Maronite Christians, Sunni and Shia Muslims, and Druze, also contributes to some of the wider regional tensions. Since gaining independence from France in 1943, Lebanon’s precarious sectarian balance has become a focal point for regional rivalries. The creation of Israel in 1948 and the subsequent Palestinian refugee crisis, the Lebanese Civil War, and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon from 1982 to 2000 further exacerbated its internal complexities and affected its foreign relations. Geopolitically, Lebanon’s border with Israel has made it a battleground for various conflicts, particularly during the 1982 Lebanon War and ongoing confrontations with Hezbollah, a Shia militant group closely allied with Iran.
One of the main causes of the civil war in Lebanon was the deep-rooted sectarian divisions in the country. The Maronite Christians, Shiite Muslims, and Sunni Muslims constituted the majority of the population there. The proportional representation in the governance system (consociational democracy), along with mutual mistrust and dissatisfaction among them, laid the ground for the conflict. Along with the chaotic social situation, the massive influx of Palestinian refugees since the creation of Israel in 1948 and the operation of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in Lebanon fueled the complexity, which brought tensions with local communities to the surface. In addition to that, the Palestinians in the refugee camps (Sabra Shatila massacre) and Lebanese people in the south became major targets of the Israeli military attacks. The interference of foreign powers like Syria, Iran, and Israel in the internal affairs of Lebanon also contributed greatly to the conflict. In a nutshell, the civil war and subsequent developments arose from various internal divisions exacerbated by external influence and interest. Understanding this is very crucial in analysing the complexities of the conflict and its long-lasting effects on Lebanon.
During the 15 years of civil war, around 90,000 people lost their lives. Nearly one lakh were severely injured, and around two-thirds of the Lebanese population was displaced (Mallo, 2019; Sune, 2011). It also shattered the infrastructure and led to a decline in the standard of living of the people. The civil war deepened the sectarian divisions and presented further challenges to the peaceful coexistence of the people. One of the significant consequences of the war was that Lebanon became a battleground for proxy conflicts between the regional powers, resulting in instability and unending conflicts in West Asia. The civil war weakened the state apparatus and challenged the governance system. The emergence of Hezbollah during the war period had a lasting impact on Lebanon’s internal dynamics and its relationship with Israel. In short, the Civil War had a significant impact on reshaping the country’s political landscape, social fabric, and economic conditions.
Hezbollah, also known as ‘the Party of God,’ is a Shiite Muslim militant group and political party based in southern Lebanon. The militant group was formed in 1982 amidst the 15-year Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990) as a response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the Israeli invasion of 1982 are some of the catalysts that led to the formation of Hezbollah. Since its establishment, the organisation has been regarded as the Iranian proxy force. At the same time, the US and other Western countries deem it a terrorist organization. The organisation is considered to be the most heavily armed non-state actor in the world. It plays a significant role in current Lebanese politics. The “Lebanonisation of Hezbollah” implies the active participation of the group in Lebanese politics since 1990 (Kunnath & Lirar, 2013). It is often considered to be “a state within a state.” Hezbollah is strongly aided by Iran, and it has violently opposed Israel and the Western influence in West Asia. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in 2020, the organization had an estimated 20,000 active fighters and some 20,000 reserves (In 2021, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah leader, said that they had 100,000 fighters- though this is possibly an exaggeration.), with an arsenal of drones, small arms, and tanks. The militant group also possesses 150,000-200,000 missiles and rockets of various ranges (Robinson, 2024; Drummond, 2024). Anyhow, despite the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon in 2000, sporadic clashes between the two have continued over the years on Lebanon’s southern and Israel’s northern border. The October 7 Hamas attack on Israel marked one of the worst attacks in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, escalating the clash between the two. Hezbollah had openly expressed its solidarity with Hamas since the very beginning of the new episode of fighting between them. The fact is that both Hamas and Hezbollah have a common and shared interest in strong opposition to Israel from their formation.
Current Developments and Future Prospects
Recent political and security crises in different parts of West Asia, especially in Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran, have intensified existing challenges and created new dynamics in West Asia. The post-October 7th clashes between the Iranian-backed “axis of resistance”—comprising groups like Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Syria and Iraq—on one side, and Israeli forces on the other side, have escalated tensions and widened the implications. Among the three non-state actors, Hezbollah is more important as it is considered one of the most powerful militant organizations in the world, with thousands of trained fighters and advanced weapons. In addition, it has a comparatively higher success rate in defending against Israel’s military superiority in the region and resisting the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon in particular. If Israel enters Lebanon with its military and the fighting continues between the two for a long period, that could destabilize the country further, especially given the country’s fragile political landscape. The Lebanese government’s inability to address economic woes and manage security concerns fosters public unrest, complicating Hezbollah’s dual role as both a political party and a military group. Increased military engagement with Israel could not only damage Lebanon’s infrastructure but also deepen internal divisions.
At this critical juncture, Lebanon’s stability is pivotal for the stability and security of the region. Any escalation in hostilities could draw in neighboring countries and shift the balance of power in the region. The potential for a wider conflict is a concern for states both in the region and outside it. The Israeli military operations and expansionist policies have further led to a cycle of retaliation from different militant groups supported by Iran. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire, exacerbated by blockades and limited access to resources. The potential escalation of conflict in West Asia due to the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran’s axis of resistance poses significant regional and global threats.
Iran has been supporting non-state actors, such as Hezbollah and various militias, to exert influence in most parts of West Asia to protect its interests and counter Western and Israeli interests in the region. This proxy warfare allows Iran to challenge Israel without direct confrontation, increasing the risk of broader conflict if any engagement escalates. Incidents along the Israeli-Lebanese border and strikes against Iranian officials and supporters in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen indicate a high potential for miscalculations. A single misstep, such as an unintended escalation or retaliation, could trigger a wider military confrontation. If a direct war happens between Israel and Iran, it could lead to a more extensive regional war, affecting global oil supplies and security. It is also important to note that both countries have some level of nuclear capabilities. Another important factor is that external actors like the U.S. and other Western powers are heavily invested in maintaining Israel’s security. An escalation in the existing conflict situation could lead to broader international involvement, potentially resulting in a confrontation between major powers and further entry of countries like Russia, China, Iraq, and Turkey. Such a potential threat would likely exacerbate the existing humanitarian crises and could lead to further destabilization of the whole region for the foreseeable future. This could also lead to significant civilian casualties, displacement, and further regional instability. If the crisis continues, there is a possibility of extremist groups exploiting the chaos, leading to increased recruitment and radicalization, potentially sparking further violence both regionally and globally.
Meanwhile, responses from various regional and international actors to the clashes have varied, with some nations calling for an immediate ceasefire, while others openly support the plight of the innocent people of Palestine and Lebanon, and the U.S. and its allies supporting Israel’s right to defend itself. The inconsistency in international responses has led to frustration among Palestinians, further entrenching their grievances. Nevertheless, various regional and international organizations play critical roles in addressing the ongoing crises in West Asia, although their effectiveness varies. To begin with, the Arab League, an organization of twenty-two Arab nations formed in 1945 aimed at promoting unity among Arab states, is struggling to forge a unified response to the crises, often hampered by member states’ differing priorities. In the initial phases, Egypt and Qatar were at the forefront of efforts to negotiate a ceasefire by facilitating dialogue and offering platforms for negotiation. However, they could not achieve the goal of a ceasefire. The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the collective voice of fifty-seven Muslim states established in 1969, spread over four continents, also failed to address the question of Palestine or to solve the clashes between Israel and other Muslim countries in West Asia. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), another important regional actor focused on economic cooperation and security, has expressed serious concern over regional conflicts and called for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. However, other than Qatar, none of them have taken much effort to solve the clash between Israel and Hamas. More importantly, the U.N., the largest international body in the world with 193 members, has failed terribly to bring an end to the conflict. The organization has again proved its ineffectiveness in solving international conflicts. Parallel to the violent clashes between various state and non-state actors in West Asia, the United States (U.S.) and Russia are deeply involved in the region, often supporting different factions and interests. While the U.S. typically backs Israel and some Arab states, Russia has strengthened ties with Syria and Iran. This geopolitical rivalry and fragmented interests complicate peace efforts and resolutions. As Paul Adams and Tom Bennet (2024) opine, it seems that “the Middle East stands closer than ever to all-out war.”
Conclusion
In the ongoing political and military crisis in West Asia, especially after the direct clashes between Israel and Hezbollah started, Lebanon has become a crucial player and an important battlefield. The interplay of political and security crises in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories is marked by deep-seated historical grievances, external influences, regional rivalry, and internal divisions. As clashes with Israel continue, both Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, especially Gaza, face a precarious balance between resistance and political stability. Now, the potential for conflict escalation remains high, with profound implications for regional security and the broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Addressing these challenges requires concerted efforts toward dialogue, humanitarian assistance, and a renewed commitment to peace initiatives from both regional and international stakeholders. While some of the regional and international actors have the potential to mediate and settle the dispute at least temporarily, their effectiveness is often constrained by economic interests, religious divisions, political affiliations, geopolitical rivalries, and other complex realities on the ground. Currently, the unending conflicts between Israel and Iran’s axis of resistance present a complex web of risks that could lead to a significant escalation of tension in West Asia. Thus, preventive diplomacy, international engagement, and conflict resolution strategies are essential to mitigate these challenges and promote stability in the region.
References
Adams, Paul and Tom Bennett (2024). “The week that pushed the Middle East closer to all-out war”. BBC. 5 October 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r89qwwx2lo
Drummond, Michael (2024). What is Hezbollah and how powerful is its military? Sky News. 28 September. https://news.sky.com/story/what-is-hezbollah-how-powerful-is-its-military-and-will-it-play-a-role-in-war-breaking-out-in-the-middle-east-12999375
Kunnath, Rajeevan and Lirar Pulikkalakath (2013). “The Politics of Resistance versus the Politics of Accommodation: Hezbollah’s Experience with Democracy in Lebanon”. Islam, Islamist Movements and Democracy in the Middle East Challenges, Opportunities and Responses. Rajeesh Kumar and Navaz Nizar (Eds). New Delhi. Global Vision Publishing House
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Robinson, Kali (2024). What Is Hezbollah? Council on Foreign Relations, 28 September.https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah
Sune, Haugbolle (2011). The historiography and the memory of the Lebanese civil war | Sciences Po Mass Violence and Resistance – Research Network. 25 October. https://www.sciencespo.fr/mass-violence-war-massacre-resistance/en/document/historiography-and-memory-lebanese-civil-war.html
Dr. LIRAR PULIKKALAKATH is an Assistant Professor at the School of International Relations and Politics (SIRP), Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala, and serves as Chairman of the Centre for Indian Diaspora Studies. He coordinates the KPS Menon Chair for Diplomatic Studies, CH Mohammed Koya Chair, and acts as Social Science Coordinator for the International Centre for Polar Studies. He has published extensively on world affairs, West Asian politics, migration, and displacement issues. Contact: lirar@mgu.ac.in
ALEENA CHACKO is an M.A. student at SIRP, Mahatma Gandhi University, specializing in human mobility and West Asia. She is the student coordinator for the KPS Menon Chair and an intern at the Centre for Indian Diaspora Studies. Contact: aleenamalu811@gmail.com
