By Scaria Cherian
The terrain of international relations is shaped by shifting interests, conflicts and contradictions. Nations often set aside ideological divisions and political disputes to establish bilateral ties and strategic partnerships. The recent phone call between American President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin reflects such a moment, where longstanding tensions gave way to a move toward engagement.
Ever since the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out, America had always been an ally of Ukraine, supplying them with arms and ammunition to pull Russia backwards. However, Trump’s rise to power has changed the long-standing U.S. approach towards Russia. For the first time since the war broke out, the U.S. has taken a soft approach towards Russia, and Trump and Putin contacted each other via phone call to change the chaotic scenario in Eastern Europe.
Trump-Putin Call
As per the readout of the phone call, the White House has confirmed that both leaders spoke about the urgency of peace in the region and a ceasefire. It is reported that both leaders agreed on the need for an end to the conflict and to bring lasting peace in both Ukraine and Russia. The two leaders also stressed that the ceasefire should begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire. They also insisted on technical negotiations for the implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, which is Russia’s trade and transportation artery.
The report from the Kremlin stated that Russia had agreed to an energy ceasefire for the next 30 days as an initial move. Putin also asked for a “complete cessation” of foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Apart from resolving the ongoing conflict, both leaders spoke about the scope of improving their bilateral relations.
Trump’s Approach Towards Russia
America has never been an ally or a friend of Russia, with exceptions during the Gorbachev era in the USSR. The hegemon viewed Russia as a threat to its existence as a global leader. However, things started to change when Trump first became president. During his first tenure, Trump was full of praise for the Russian leader, and there has been a lot of controversy regarding Russian state-sponsored media’s role in Trump’s success. Apart from that, it has been no secret that in the 1980s Trump’s business flourished with Russian money. This shows one side of Trump’s friendly approach towards Russia.
Apart from all that, America’s new approach towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict has political and economic dimensions. Recently, Trump and Zelensky had talks on mineral agreements. As per the reports, Zelensky agreed to provide 50% of Ukrainian earth minerals to the U.S. but demanded security so that the nation would have a guard of protection from Russian attacks. However, Trump was of the opinion that the existing military spending and defence aids are enough and rejected any security as compensation for the past spending. As a result of the difference in opinion, there is a lack of clarity whether the two countries would move forward and sign the agreement.
Meanwhile, Russia, assuming it as their best opportunity, came up with an offer to America which Trump found appealing. In a video that went viral on online platforms, Putin said that he was “open to cooperation” with his American partners and private companies. Russia has put forth a proposal for an agreement with the Trump administration on access to Russian rare earth minerals and critical minerals, according to sources from NBC News. This proposed deal could happen as the Trump administration and U.S. are in many ways trying to counter China’s influence and dominance in the rare earths and other critical metals. China, as of now, has the largest rare earth and critical minerals reserves, accounting for as much as 60% of global reserves, and controls 90% of the production of these minerals and metals. Thus, China controls the production and the supply chain of these energy resources.
Why America Eyes Rare Earth and Critical Minerals
The control over REE (Rare Earth Elements) and critical minerals is so significant that it is quintessential in the present and future world. Minerals of this kind are exponentially used in the production of modern-day electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense equipment and fighter jets. America still relies on China for the production of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets essential for EVs and defense technology. Critical minerals such as gallium and germanium, used for the production of semiconductors, solar cells, and electronic devices, are also manufactured and supplied to the U.S. by China. In addition, China has announced a ban on the export of these rare earth metals to America after Trump initiated the trade war with China. America and Trump cannot afford to lose these minerals at any cost, as it decides not just America’s future but the whole world. Without having enough availability of these REE and critical minerals, the U.S.’s place in defense, sustainable development, and technological advancement will lag far behind China (it’s already behind China in these areas of development).
To counter this, America has to find ways, and that’s the moment Russia has come up with the offer. As per the current statistical data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Russia has the world’s fifth-largest reserves of rare earth metals. However, Russia estimates that its rare earth reserves are much higher. At the same time, Russian billionaire and businessman Vladimir Potanin, who owns metallurgical giant Nornickel, said that he wants to explore the rare earth mineral reserves in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine. Potanin also shared his interest in partnering with foreign players. Being a close ally of Russian President Putin, Potanin might have come up with such a move to attract Trump and his administration. It was also reported by Newsweek that the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) has said that they want to partner with U.S. companies to explore the mineral reserves in Russia. According to Potanin, geological studies regarding the potential of such minerals in Russia have been long lost since the collapse of the USSR, and he also stated that it is essential to restore the studies so as to revamp and explore the mineral reserves.
Russia’s Intentions
While the U.S. plans to counter China’s growth and supremacy in the sector, Russia views it as a chance to remove the isolation they are facing from the Global West. Such a change in scenario might improve Russia’s trade with Europe and bolster its economy. Furthermore, Russia could gain leverage over negotiations with the U.S. in the future, using it as a bargaining chip in case of any sanctions or disputes. This can lead to U.S. dependency on Russia. This can also be analysed as a balancing act, as Russia, while keeping its alliance with China, is also trying to offer an alternative to the U.S. amidst its crisis.
Russia’s balancing act and America’s opportunist political game plan might pave the way for new political developments. This new political scenario might put an end to the prolonged war in Eastern Europe, while America might possibly seek some profits out of it. The meeting between the diplomats of the two nations in Saudi on Monday also shows the chances of ceasefire and peace in the region, though it is yet to happen.
