James discusses the US apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on PTV.
To listen to the podcast of watch the video, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/us-apprehends-maduro-what-next
Transcription
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Hello and welcome to Unfold. I am Jawahar Tihami. In today’s programme, we are going to talk about the latest developments after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. They’ve been transported to America where President Donald Trump, he will face American justice, and he will stand trial over there.
Let’s begin (and) talk about the situation that is developing after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured by special forces of the United States of America with President Donald Trump saying the U.S. will run Venezuela until a safe, proper, and judicious transition happens. Washington is also not afraid of putting the boots on the ground. We are going to have very large U.S. oil companies go in. At the same time, he has dismissed the possibility of Maria Machado to replace Nicolas Maduro. Instead, President Donald Trump has touted for the current Vice President of Venezuela. However, Vice President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, has decried Maduro’s capture as kidnapping and also demanded his immediate release saying she has assumed as interim president on the court orders, also saying that Maduro is the only president of Venezuela.
We also saw earlier Russia and also a number of countries in Latin American region including Cuba, Mexico, Brazil condemning this particular move by the United States of America. We have also seen a statement that has come from Chinese foreign ministry that has demanded the immediate release of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, also saying the situation should be resolved through dialogue and negotiations. We have also seen United Nations Secretary General expressing his concern regarding this evolving situation, also saying that he’s disappointed that the rules of international law have not been respected.
It is also expected the United Nations Security Council is going to have a meeting regarding this evolving situation vis-a-vis Venezuela on Monday. We have also seen when we talk about within the United States of America, many opposing voices regarding this particular move by the Trump administration have emerged when we particularly talk about the Democrats. There are also multiple media reports that are talking about the people going out and demonstrating against this particular move.
In this particular segment, we are going to talk about what are going to be the implications of this particular move by the U.S. when it comes to regional stability vis-a-vis Latin America, what sort of a message has been sent to the world at large, how the world has reacted, what is expected to transpire from the United Nations Security Council meeting that is expected to happen on Monday, a number of other aspects.
We’ll try to unfold those during this particular segment. For that, we are honoured to be joined through the video link by Mr. James M. Dorsey.
He is adjunct senior fellow at the School of International Relations. He is also a senior analyst joining us from Bangkok. Mr. Dorsey, thank you very much for your time for being with us on Unfold tonight. We really appreciate that. Mr. Dorsey, let’s talk about that particular statement by the Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, who has talked about how this particular operation has been carried out with coordination, with precision, the lethality and the stealth. Are you not curious about how easily a head of the state could be taken out by some foreign forces? There hasn’t been any sort of retaliation or any sort of resistance when this particular entire saga was unfolding. How do you look at that?
[James M. Dorsey] The execution of this operation obviously was very impressive. To what degree the United States forces may or may not have had inside help, with other words, support by elements of the Maduro regime is a matter of speculation. What I do think we have at the moment is a situation in which the United States obviously did not take out the regime as such.
It took out Maduro and his wife, but left the regime in place, and it assumed that the regime would be coerced or intimidated to a degree that it would be willing to cooperate with the United States. On the surface of things, that has failed. The vice president, who is a staunch Maduro supporter, has been appointed as acting president and has demanded the immediate release of Maduro and stated that he is the legitimate president of the country.
However, in the days prior to the US attack and the arrest of Maduro, Maduro himself was speaking to the United States and to President Trump and willing to find a way out of the crisis and willing to work with the United States. That gives the vice president, the acting president at the moment, the cover she may need if she would want to find a modus vivandi with the United States. If she doesn’t or is unable to do so, then that puts the United States in a position in which if they’re going to carry out President Trump’s wishes, they would actually have to invade the country and take over the administration.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Mr. Dorsey, what is the possibility when we talk about the possibility of the US putting the boots on the ground?
Is it doable? And also, President Donald Trump dismissing at one point when he was asked about the opposition leader Maria Machado, he dismissed, he said that she doesn’t have the respect within Venezuela and also touted for the name of vice president instead. After that particular statement by vice president, do you think the things are going to be resolved that amicably?
[James M. Dorsey] Well, that’s, I think, what remains to be seen and it’s too early to tell. What I do think is the case that Mr. Trump’s dismissal of Mrs. Machado as a future leader of Venezuela reinforces the notion that he was counting on the Maduro regime falling into line. Does the United States have the ability to invade Venezuela?
There’s no doubt about it. And for all practical matters, Trump has left that possibility open. He said on the one hand, in his news conference last night, that he is not averse to boots on the ground, but he also described the operation to arrest Mr. Maduro as the first wave and that the U.S., the United States were poised for a second wave, which at this point he thought would not be necessary. What is also true, that if it came to a situation of a U.S. invasion or U.S. troops on the ground in Venezuela, that risks enormous conflict. It could even risk a civil war. The Maduro, or Maduro himself, may have been a very controversial president, but there is a minority, but nonetheless a significant minority, in the country that supports him.
And Venezuela is a country with a widespread distribution of arms, in addition to which we don’t really know whether there are factions within the Venezuelan military and how the military would respond to a U.S. invasion. So this is a very tricky situation if indeed Rodriguez, the current acting president, is unwilling or unable to play ball with Trump.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Okay, so what is the reason that comes to your mind when it comes to President Trump dismissing the possibility of Maria Machado replacing Nicolas Maduro?