A couple of days after former President Mahinda Rajapaksa declared that his SLPP would field a ‘patriot who can defend the country and the people’, his brother and party organiser Basil R came up with the name. Of course, there are no marks for guessing….
Going by media reports, Basil named another brother and war-time Defence Secretary Gotahaya Rajapaksa as the SLPP candidate for the presidential polls. Not long before the Basil declaration, Ven Warakagoda Sri Gnanarathana Thera, the Mahanayake of the Asgiriya Chapter, one of the high priests of majority Buddhism in the country, had expressed happiness about Chamal Rajapaksa, the oldest of the four brothers – and the least controversial of them, going by some descriptions, entering the presidential poll race.
Whatever that be, the Rajapaksas could not have expected an unsolicited overseas campaign for them though they could as well do with the same. Even as Mahinda R made the ‘patriot’ statement, indicating that it could well be Gota and none else, another clutch of cases have been filed in US courts, for alleged torture during the war years.
The effect of the court-campaign on domestic politics and elections may have been different in the weeks and months before the Easter Day blasts. If nothing else, it would have impacted on the ‘minority votes’ in the country more than the Sinhala-Buddhist majority. Even the majority community might have continued to be divided, as much as in 2015, which elections war-winning incumbent in Mahinda R lost.
It is not so this time around – or, so would it seem. A past-master in political campaign nearer home than diplomatic offensive(s) overseas, Mahinda’s choice of the term ‘patriot’ clearly heralded the tone and tenor of the SLPP-JO offensive for the presidential polls. The multiple, yet divided opposition to what really is the political Opposition, inside and outside Parliament, lost out round one when they failed to take away the honorific that remains a halo only around the head and person of the Rajapaksas, especially Mahinda and Gota, all along – and more so the latter this time.
Yet, if court proceedings in the US, or the latter’s refusal to let Gota surrender his American citizenship, should come in the way of his becoming the party’s presidential candidate, the 12th man has already been named – however reluctant he may be said to have been otherwise. If the family were to be pushed to a corner through perceived ‘overseas machinations’ purportedly involving host-governments and the SLT Diaspora, Chamal Rajapaksa could not be seen deserting brothers and the party – least of all run away from a political battle and poll campaign that Brothers R are known to love and enjoy.
Blast of a difference
There is however a difference to perceptions, before and after the Easter Sunday serial-blasts that claimed 250-plus innocent lives. The dead in this case cannot be compared to those that Tamil civilians who had lost their lives in the decisive ‘Eelam War IV’ – or, even targeted wantonly. The Easter blasts victims cannot be dismissed away as terrorists, sleeper-cells or even supporters and sympathisers, as may have been the case with the former.
All this has also meant that in a presidential poll where Gota may not be able to contest, whatever the reason – justified or not – Chamal can casually slip into his shoes. Mahinda R, who has polled a consistent 45 per cent vote-share for the politics that he represents, can now transfer it near-wholesale to Gota, Chamal or whoever else in their place. Pre-Easter blasts, it could have been Gota and Gota alone, as it was only the ‘Rajapaksa voters’ who were in the reckoning.
Post-blasts, it is not about a ‘tough man’ or even a ‘patriot’. It is once again a ‘negative vote’ of sorts, or so it would seem… That is to say, you need not be as much a ‘patriot who can defend the country and the people’, as Mahinda R has qualified his presidential nominee. For this constituency, and a possibly extended and/or extendable one, he needs only to challenge the status quo government leadership(s), which is divided – and can be packaged also as ‘divisive’ by fault, if not default.
‘Secured Sri Lanka’ is the slogan of the ‘Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist’ constituency and also of the contenders for the title. It is also the refrain of Mahinda R’s ‘patriot’ reference. Post-blasts socio-political realities may have flagged the larger issues in the minds of the nation’s minorities too – or, at least a section thereof. That is to say, a decade after the end of the ethnic war, and half as much after Aluthgama and Weliweriya, where Muslims and Christians were targeted, whatever the reason and justification, if at all any, at least some among them seem wanting to put ‘national security’ as a guarantor for personal security – especially, if there is an ‘external angle’ to such attacks against those communities.
Isolated, or unwanted?
Despite their protests and protestations to the contrary, the Tamils, at the height of the ethnic war, the Sri Lankan Tamil community was made to feel isolated, and at times unwanted – or, not-wanted – by the rest of Sri Lanka and Sri Lankans. This might have created the defensive mechanism in the Tamils, nearer home and overseas, where they sought to delineate the Sri Lankan State and the armed forces as their only enemies, but failed to convince the larger national population.
In a way, the Kathankudy mosque attacks and the one-way ticket for the Tamil-speaking Northern Muslims to walk their way out of the Province, to personal safety, poverty and penury did not help matters. Though Christians in Tamil areas had nothing to fear from, given that they got identified with the ‘reigning’ LTTE more than the rest, it was not the case outside of the Tamil areas. The idea of ‘minorities attacking minorities’ did not go down well.
All that changed after, and only after, Aluthgama and Weliweriya, both under the Rajapaksa regime, circa 2013, and contributed in no small measure to Mahinda R’s presidential poll defeat in 2015. Today, the greater fear of the unknown seems to be more near and real to every individual on Sri Lankan streets, both locals and foreigners, that the dividing line between national security and personal safety seems to be diminishing, if not vanishing…
In context, the Rajapaksas may have to thank the successor government and the nation’s courts for putting the likes of BBS boss, Ven Gananasara Thero, out of circulation, and even more out of relative relevance, compared to their own time in office. Between President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former might still have to bear the cross, if it came to that, for granting presidential pardon to the controversial Thero and freeing him from prison, post-blasts.
If this was Sirisena’s way of trying to win over the ‘Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist’ lobby, or at least a miniscule part thereof, it may not help him win the presidential polls. But then fending off the likes of Gnanasara Thero was Wickremesinghe’s way of asserting his UNP’s liberal credentials, post-blasts, it may seem wholly inadequate, given that he is seen more as using the same to fend off Sirisena, rather than fighting the cause of national security, this time against the likes of Easter blasts perpetrators.
Which way the electorate?
There is no denying the share of the Muslim and Christian vote-shares that helped Mahinda R sweep the post-war presidential polls of 2010 by a bigger margin than expected. Poll figures showed that a majority of Tamils, or whoever exercised, or could exercise their franchise, had voted against the war-victor of the President. The reverse was the case in 2015, where a substantial number of Muslims and also Sinhala-Christians too had voted against incumbent Mahinda, post-Aluthgama, post-Weliweriya.
The question now, to put it bluntly and blandly, is this: Which way will the ethnic minorities swing in the presidential polls, keeping the Sinhala-Buddhist majority division of votes as a ‘constant’. There are enough signs in the air that the Sinhala-Christians, especially, are upset with the present-day rulers, and possibly the ruling class as a whole. The question is will a majority of them cast their vote, or stay away at home, praying for the nation, instead.
Going by statements and counters, both inside Parliament and outside, at PSC sessions and in news conferences, the Tamil-speaking people may have also been divided, unlike in Elections-2015. There seems to be a thinking in the rest of the Tamil-speaking community, which is uncomfortable with the Muslims. The reverse also seems to be the case, though the latter cannot be expected to take the blame for ‘lone wolf’ acts, as army chief, Lt-Gen Mahesh Senanayake has since told the PSC, hearing the ‘Easter blasts’ issues and concerns.
Even without it all, there seems to be a three-way division in the thinking of the Tamil-speaking communities, going by religious identities. Whatever it be, there is no clue as yet that they all will vote together in the presidential polls, as in 2015. Whatever it be, and whichever candidate individual communities may vote, there is no denying that the pressure on the Rajapaksas, unlike in 2015, may be much less this time. That’s an advantage for the Rajapaksas, to start with.
The greater advantage for a Rajapaksa, or any other Rajapaksa candidate, independent of issues and concerns, legalities and political niceties, is that they may still continue to hold a substantial say among the Sinhala-Buddhist voters. It could be more than already, or at least as much as it was in the three poll since the lost presidential polls of 2015.
At 45 per cent, it may not be enough, but then it is the best any party of candidacy can hope for – especially if the rivals are divided, as Sirisena and Wickremesinghe, and the parties that they represent at present are.
Courtesy: Ceylon Today
