World politics is getting polarized with America and the West in one camp and authoritarian giants like Russia and China in the opposite camp. Meanwhile, India, Turkey, South America, African continental powers and other developed countries are middling either in the Global North and the Global South. Whereas, geopolitics is getting strenuous and burdensome to countries that are devoid of diplomatic finesse and national power to meet the political, economic and security challenges. Geopolitics determines geo-economics, and geo-culture shapes soft power. The activity of one domain overshadows the other if the country’s situation is incompatible with a similar temperament of foreign and security policy of either camp. Small powers and those who choose a non-aligned policy endeavour to capitalize on great power competition. Additionally, countries are becoming assertive when liberal norms and values are getting illiberal swings and tinge in domestic affairs and by happenings in foreign affairs putting pressure on internal matters. Nepal is sequestered between giant powers. It has a daunting challenge to tactfully maintain the balance of power politics even when compounded by extra-regional powers like the Western bloc countries. Geopolitics will certainly be in the spotlight in Nepal when tensions and anxiety unfold in other regions of the world.
Geopolitics is in the vortex of developing extreme phenomena when the clash of national and international interests spills over both the hotspots and soft spots of the theatre of the world. The Enlightenment commenced in the Western Hemisphere in the 17th century, and it encountered strange and dissimilar territories in the Non-West where it battled for domination and control. That interface created according to my study sharpened both the hegemony and shrewdness of superior powers particularly colonial states on the one hand, and responses of the elites of the country who under the patrimonial state in the Non-West behaved cleverly to defend their homeland and hinterlands on the other hand.
Bearing this testimony of history, Nepal had waged wars with British India and Tibet taking into account pressures from the South and the North inclusive of an unstable domestic system. The determinants of Nepal’s international conflict had been both internal power struggles and external developments. This grain of analysis persists even today in different forms and manifestations. Earlier Western missionaries and foreign agents entered Nepal, considered to be the land of mystery to unravel the unknown. And still, the journey continues after the enticement of the known. It is interesting the scripted and unscripted truths of this part of the world that baffle us to resolve recurring problems in human affairs. The current history of Nepal is no different than the past. International wars may not commence in our territory. But the violent and non-violent conflict here and there seems to appear, disappear and reappear in geography and demography.
It is to be wary to ensure diplomatic accidents may not happen. It is a serious matter to tread a thin line of redlines, bottom lines and frontlines of external engagements and dealings. Diplomacy needs painstaking care and foresight to make a strong nation-state, and in the current discourse of state-nation context, both soft power and hard power are to be consolidated at their best.
There are analogies made about Nepal’s geopolitics in the past of being under the high communist atmospheric conditions like in the Indo-China peninsula, repetition of an imperial graveyard of Afghanistan and neutralism of the landlocked and prosperous confederation of Switzerland. Development practitioners borrow the economic blueprint of developed countries or countries similar to Nepal making a giant leap in development. This is an interesting epoch too for a single reason: the universal norms, values and principles emanating from the Western world that are penetrating the Non-Western polity. Public policy including foreign and security policy has similar templates everywhere except in countries that are authoritarian with economic liberalism or state-controlled capitalism. It is a policy paradox but also similar desires to the fate of humanity.
A spectre of policy is undoubtedly contesting in the arena as geopolitics has made a comeback. There is political consensus and dissensus to grapple with the challenge. A core of conflict and cooperation resides in the policy of the government. The other wing of the political society is where the pros, cons and alternatives of existing and influential policies are deliberated in democracy. Or policy storming happens within a case of a state apparatus like a technocratic or bureaucratic system of authoritarian countries.
Nepal also faces a battle on many frontlines from above and below the state level, particularly in sovereignty based on people in politics and economics. It is the aesthetics of democracy that defines, redefines and innovates public policy including the foreign policy domain. External influences shape concepts and practices of diplomacy. Great powers conduct diplomacy in multiple ways and Nepal has to brace to listen and pay attention to their specific needs where mutuality strikes.
The coming decades would certainly accentuate geopolitics in Nepal against the backdrop of India and China as they capture the status of rising powers. Furthermore, Nepal is emerging from a controversial history and aspiring for peace, progress and prosperity with stakes of posterity. Similarly, it has to adequately prepare to reckon activities and power politics of superior countries. The government has to focus on proactiveness and responsiveness to secure deals and negotiations in the best interests of Nepal with its partners, friends and international fraternity.
Geopolitics is facing the same course of continuity, change and conflict as in foreign and security policy. A constancy of security dilemma, power politics, balances and leverages, manoeuvrings and cunningness resemble the norms and values of realpolitik inside and outside Nepal. With a heavy heart, idealpolitik, or idealism a society that has cherished impersonally domestic politics is getting nipped in the bud. It is domestic society’s political trait that attributes a credible reason perturbed by external changes. A salient feature of hierarchy and anarchy is the norm that reflects in international society too. And politicking is happening every day, and so does in geography and demography.
