Bangladesh has plunged into a severe political crisis, marked by the resignation and flight of a long-time prime minister Sheikh Hasina amid a mass uprising against her increasingly authoritarian rule. The unrest, which began as student-led protests against a regressive job allocation system, has escalated into a nationwide movement, revealing deep-seated frustrations among the youth and other deprived sections over issues such as rampant corruption, unemployment, poverty, and social inequality.
Sheikh Hasina served as prime minister in two separate terms: from June 1996 to July 2001 and from January 2009 until her recent resignation. Her tenure made her the longest-serving prime minister in Bangladesh’s history and the world’s longest-serving female head of government. Hasina’s political journey has been fraught with relentless challenges, including opposition, threats, and widespread criticism both nationally and internationally.
Despite overseeing substantial infrastructure development projects that elevated Bangladesh’s economic profile, Hasina’s administration was marred by accusations of election rigging, undermining state institutions, tolerating rampant corruption, and allowing considerable leeway to Awami League leaders and members. Human Rights Watch documented numerous cases of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings under her rule. Reporters Without Borders criticized her media policies in 2021, highlighting a significant decline in press freedom since 2014.
The Catalyst for Unrest
The recent mass movement began in June when a high court ordered the government to restore a controversial policy reserving 30% of government jobs for the families of veterans who fought in the 1971 civil war against Pakistan. This policy, seen as blatant favouritism, ignited widespread resentment, especially among young Bangladeshis facing high unemployment. Approximately 400,000 graduates each year vie for just 3,000 government jobs in a nation grappling with severe unemployment, exacerbating frustration among the youth.
The ruling Awami League’s deep roots in the independence movement and Hasina’s emphasis on her lineage as the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman further fuelled the perception that the policy disproportionately benefited party loyalists. The combination of economic hardship, lack of job opportunities, and perceived nepotism galvanized the youth, transforming initial protests into a nationwide uprising.
Escalation and Military Intervention
The unrest quickly escalated into clashes with police and the ruling party’s militant student wing, the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), leading to the occupation of Dhaka’s streets. The protests spread rapidly, affecting nearly half of the country’s 64 districts. In response, the government deployed armed troops and imposed a nationwide curfew with a shoot-to-kill order on July 20. Moreover, internet services were shut down, effectively isolating the nation of 171 million from the rest of the world until a partial restoration on July 23.
The government’s harsh and draconian actions led to the deaths of hundreds and left thousands more grievously injured. The escalating brutality sparked fury among student unions and the people of Bangladesh, who began demanding Sheikh Hasina’s immediate resignation. Authorities charged at least 61,000 individuals for the recent violence, including many from the beleaguered opposition that Hasina frequently blamed for the country’s problems.
As the crackdown on communication and movement threatened the economy, particularly the massive garment industry vital for the country’s exports, Hasina responded with anger, calling for retribution against the ‘criminals’ behind the protests. Her vengeful and uncompromising stance, however, misjudged public sentiment and her grip on power. The intervention by the military sealed her government’s fate, forcing her to resign and flee the country with military escorts to India, and possibly moving to London, pending asylum approval from the UK.
Formation of an Interim Government
In response to the escalating crisis, President Mohammed Shahabuddin announced the formation of an interim government with military oversight and the release of opposition leader Khaleda Zia. Zia, 78, twice served as prime minister and was convicted of corruption in 2018, resulting in a 17-year prison sentence.
The interim government is expected to continue implementing austerity measures linked to a 2023 IMF bailout, which involved a $4.7 billion loan requiring Bangladesh to adopt privatization and austerity measures to stabilize its economy. Moreover, the government has released several members of Jamaat-e-Islami, who had been imprisoned for various charges for years, marking a crucial development in the political landscape and potentially reshaping alliances and power dynamics within the country.
A Call for New Leadership
The organizers of the protests have proposed Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus to head the interim government. Known as the ‘banker to the poor,’ Yunus received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for pioneering microlending, a practice that has lifted millions out of poverty. Despite facing corruption accusations and a trial during Hasina’s rule, Yunus has consistently claimed these charges were politically motivated. A spokesperson for Yunus confirmed that he has agreed to serve as an adviser to the interim government and plans to return to Bangladesh immediately to assist in the nation’s transition.
A Historical Parallel
The current upheaval in Bangladesh mirrors Sri Lanka’s 2022 crisis, where mass protests and strikes led to the ousting of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, the subsequent government continued with harsh economic reforms and built-up repressive state forces. To avoid a similar outcome, Bangladeshi people will have to pursue a new political path aimed at systemic change and the reorganization of economic life.
A Complex Legacy
Sheikh Hasina’s legacy is a complex history of triumph and tribulation. From the shadow of her family’s assassination to the pinnacle of political power, her story is one of resilience and endurance. Yet, it is also a stark reminder of the ever-present volatility in the political landscape of Bangladesh, where power is as fragile as it is coveted.
As Bangladesh stands on the point of significant political change, the role of new leadership could be decisive in steering the country towards stability and renewed democratic governance. The release of political prisoners, including Begum Khaleda Zia and members of Jamaat-e-Islami, and the proposal for Muhammad Yunus to head (or serving as Chief Advisor to) the interim government, mark significant steps towards a redefined future for the nation.
Implications for India
The political upheaval in Bangladesh presents significant geopolitical and economic challenges for India. The instability can exacerbate border security issues, with the potential for increased illegal immigration along the long, porous border shared with India’s northeastern states. Economically, Bangladesh’s turmoil risks disrupting trade routes and economic relations. As a significant trading partner, instability in Bangladesh could affect businesses and investments, particularly in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and garments where Indian firms have substantial stakes. Prolonged instability may lead to project delays, increased costs, or even the abandonment of investments, impacting the economic interests of both nations.
Diplomatically, India faces a delicate balancing act. Supporting democratic movements might strain relations with Bangladesh’s interim government or military leaders, while perceived support for authoritarianism could damage India’s global image. The situation is further complicated by India’s decision to allow Sheikh Hasina to land, which risks future relations with Bangladesh. The meeting of National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and subsequent Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) meeting, along with discussions with opposition leaders in Delhi, all indicate New Delhi’s concerns.
In a Suo moto statement to the Lok Sabha on Tuesday, External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar expressed particular concern over the attacks on minorities, their businesses, and temples at various locations in Bangladesh. He stated that India is maintaining close and continuous contact with the Indian community in Bangladesh through its diplomatic missions. Approximately 19,000 Indian nationals reside in Bangladesh, including around 9,000 students. Most students returned to India in July following advice from the High Commission. In addition to the High Commission in Dhaka, India has Assistant High Commissions in Chittagong, Rajshahi, Khulna, and Sylhet. India expects the host government to provide the necessary security for these establishments and anticipates their normal functioning once the situation stabilizes. The situation of minorities is also being closely monitored, with various groups and organizations reportedly taking steps to ensure their protection and well-being. While these initiatives are welcome, India will remain deeply concerned until law and order are visibly restored. Border guarding forces have been instructed to remain exceptionally vigilant given the complex situation, he said.
Given the anti-India sentiments of major opposition parties in Bangladesh, including the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, New Delhi is closely watching whether the political shift will tilt the balance of power in South Asia. Moreover, with China’s growing influence in the region, India may work to maintain its strategic interests in Bangladesh amidst the political upheaval. New Delhi fears that any power vacuum could be exploited by China and Pakistan to strengthen their foothold in Bangladesh, challenging India’s regional geopolitical interests.
First Published in The Geopolitics
The author is Director, Inter University Centre for Social Science Research and Extension (IUCSSRE), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala. He also served as ICSSR Senior Fellow, Senior Professor of International Relations and Dean of Social Sciences at MGU.
