Recently the world witnessed an embrace between the Amir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, 40, and the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), 35, on 5 January 2021 when the former arrived to attend the 41st GCC summit in Al Ula, a historic city in Saudi Arabia, through which the ancient Silk Road passed. Though it was Bahrain’s turn to host the summit, the venue was shifted because of the importance attached to healing the rift with Qatar.
An important invitee was Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, whose presidency will end on 20 January 2021, despite all that he is doing to avert the inevitable. Some U.S. scholars have hastened to shower praise on Kushner for his exertions to effect the rapprochement. Of course, Kushner would have worked the phones, but these scholars have failed to raise the question: Why did Kushner exert himself now? The blockade goes back to June 2017. If he wanted to do it, Kushner could have done it earlier. Obviously, these scholars do not want to speak truth to power, even as the power in question is setting down.
The origins of the blockade
Most Western scholars and their Indian acolytes have sought an explanation for the blockade in the strained bilateral relations between Riyadh and Doha. Qatar that has a land border only with its big neighbor had a violent border dispute in 1992. Though the border dispute was settled in 2001, Riyadh recalled its ambassador from Doha in 2002, ostensibly for Al Jazeera’s objectionable coverage of events in Saudi Arabia. Qatar promised action and the ambassador returned in 2008.
In 2014, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., and Bahrain withdrew their ambassadors and sent them back after 8 months. The Al Jazeera reporting on Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. was one of the complaints.
I was India’s Ambassador in Doha when Al Jazeera was started. In the 1990s, Saudi Arabia and the BBC had agreed to start an Arabic channel; the understanding was that the Saudis would fund, and the BBC would have complete editorial control. But when the channel started, Riyadh wanted a share in editorial control. The BBC refused and the joint venture broke down, leaving many journalists, mostly British, without job. In 1996, Qatar spotted the opportunity and hired them. Now, Al Jazeera reaches out to 270 million households in 140 countries. There is no other channel in the global South to compete with the Western channels.
The bilateral strains between Doha and Riyadh did contribute to the blockade. But the blockade would not have occurred without a nod from Trump, who chose Saudi Arabia for his first official visit. This was a departure from practice as his predecessors generally chose neighboring Mexico or Canada for the first visit.
Trump, the most enthusiastic salesman for the merchants of death, also known as the Military-Industrial-Congressional complex, chose Riyadh mainly because he found a golden opportunity in Saudi Arabia. Trump was given a Wagnerian reception in Riyadh where he took part in a sword dance. He signed an arms deal worth $350 billion over 10 years.
MBS told Kushner of plans to ‘punish’ Qatar for ‘funding terrorism’ and Trump nodded. Later, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who too had accompanied Trump, revealed that Kushner had not kept him in the loop. He was testifying to the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee two years later.
The modus operandi adopted by Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi was truly original. Trump left Riyadh on 21st May 2017. On 24th May the Qatari News Agency’s website was hacked by U.A.E.; the website carried a story of the Amir speaking to military officers criticizing United States, praising Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Israel. He was quoted as saying that Trump might not remain in office much longer. Despite the Agency’s clarification that it was hacked, the media in Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. prominently carried the hacked version.
On 4th June the media carried the hacked emails of the U.A.E. Ambassador in Washington which showed that he was working towards shifting the U.S. air base in Qatar to another country. He was spreading stories about Qatar’s ‘activities.’
On 5th June at 5.50 A.M. Bahrain declared that it was cutting off diplomatic, consular, trade, and transport links with Qatar. It was followed by Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., and Egypt by 6.10 A.M. Obviously, the foreign offices would have done the planning the previous day.
Qatar’s resilience and diplomatic maturity
Not once did Qatar say anything offensive against the blockading countries. 300,000 Egyptians are in Qatar. Even if a hundred of them had been sent back, President El Sisi would have been put in a difficult situation. Qatar displayed patience and maturity.
The U.A.E. continued to get 1/3rd of its gas from Qatar through the Dolphin Energy pipeline. Qatar opened up alternate sources of supply for imports from Iran, Oman, Turkey and elsewhere. It imported cows and became self-sufficient in milk. It speeded up the construction at Hamad port south of Doha for shipping to Oman. Qatar’s economy suffered initially, but soon it started recovering. Doha had to draw down about $39 billion from its sovereign fund estimated at $335 billion.
The 70 flights a day from Doha to its three neighbors stopped. The Qatar Airways had to use Iranian air space for its international flights.
Washington’s response
Trump tweeted support to the Saudi action even as his Department of State urged reconciliation. The Secretary of Defence rushed in to tell Trump that the Pentagon had its biggest air base in the region in Qatar with over 10,000 personnel. Trump did not budge. He enjoyed seeing Qatar sign up a deal to in June 2017 to buy F-16 jets worth $12 billion.
Obviously, his plan to sell arms to both sides worked well.
The 13 demands of the blockaders
On June 22, 2017, Qatar was given an ultimatum, which to expire in ten days, to comply with 13 demands. The ultimatum was meant to humiliate. Essentially, Qatar had to shut down Al Jazeera, reduce relations with Iran, close down the Turkish base, and stop ‘funding of terrorist’ organizations such as Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, and subject itself for ‘monitoring’ for ten years. Qatar rejected the demands but expressed readiness to discuss.
It passeth our understanding that anyone should ask Qatar to spoil its relations with Iran with which it shares the biggest gas field.
Was there a plan to invade Qatar?
Reports have appeared in the U.S. media that Secretary Tillerson stood in the way of planned invasion of Qatar and that Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. had worked on Trump to sack Tillerson. Whether the reports about the planned invasion are true or not, the author while visiting the headquarters of Al Jazeera in December 2019 to attend the Doha Forum was told that they were fearing an air attack after the blockade was announced.
Qatar asked and Turkey sent a few hundred soldiers to the base in existence since 2015.
The cost: human and economic
Among the GCC countries many marry from another GCC country. As the consular relations were broken, tens of thousands of families were separated. Only 14 days were given for the nationals to return to their countries from Qatar. Qatar did not ask any national of the blockading country to leave.
Qatar’s trade in 2015 with the three blockaders totaled $7.5 billion, with UAE alone amounting to $5 billion. Saudi banks had an exposure of $30 billion in Qatar.
It is for scholars to study the human cost economic cost of this senseless blockade. Such a study might prevent a repletion of this foolish decision.
The peace makers
The late Amir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber Al-Sabah started working on mediation on day one. The late Sultan of Oman Qaboos bin Said collaborated with the Amir. Both of them, the founding fathers of the GCC, passed away in 2020.
It is not the fault of the mediators that it took so long. They can only take the horse to the stream, but obviously cannot make it drink. One of the reasons for the GCC strains is that the successors of the founders of the GCC lack their vision and diplomatic maturity.
What next?
As far as the GCC is concerned, it might be rather optimistic that with the end of the blockade, further cooperation and integration can proceed as envisaged by its founders. The U.A.E. took longer than Saudi Arabia to announce restoration of relations.
The GCC was founded in 1981 by the first generation of rulers after the departure of Britain. It will be naïve to expect the restoration of GCC to good health immediately. Qatar is going to retain its independent foreign policy. The GCC needs to re-invent itself to accommodate differences within an overall framework of commonly agreed objectives. Domination by a member or two will not be accepted.
If President Biden rejoins the Iran nuclear deal and lifts the Trump-imposed sanctions on Iran, there might be a chance for a new dawn for this region, rich in oil and turmoil. Biden should convene a Conference on Security of the Gulf to which the P5, India, and Israel too should be invited.
The GCC can contribute significantly to the security of the region based on mutual trust and cooperation among all the stakeholders. If Netanyahu does not come back to power in Israel after the general election in March 2021, the prospects for peace will be improved.
This article was originally published in the Madras Courier.
