Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government has approved three security documents—the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Construction Program—to strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities. Japan is amid an increasingly volatile security environment. The Japanese government has announced an unprecedented defense budget of $320 billion over the next five years. This represents 2 percent of the gross domestic product of the Japanese economy. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida took the bold step on November 28, covering the year 2027. The shift from dovish to hawkish security policy began when former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe revised Article 9 of Japan’s constitution in 2015, which prohibits war-mongering. Japanese security imperative emanates from the possible military activities of its three immediate neighbors – China, North Korea, and Russia in Northeast Asia. Japan’s defense development is driven by reasons and concerns for the development of regional security, peace, and order in the first quarter of the 21st century.
With the publication of three historic strategies on December 16, civil-military relations will be redefined. This position has long undermined the defense industry and is now prioritized. Since the NSS was published in 2013, the first major revision was made. Kishida says they aim to “dramatically change the post-war approach to national security policy” to prevent aggression, counter threats and strengthen its diplomacy. The NSS describes China as Japan’s “greatest strategic challenge”, while the NSS (2013) found China to be “disturbing”. All three documents seek to coordinate the use of all dimensions of Japanese state power for national security purposes, including economic resources and the state’s technical and intelligence capabilities. This is a “structural upheaval” from previous recommendations made through the National Defense Program Guidelines, which were first introduced in 1976 during Cold War cuts and last updated in 2018. This encourages Japan not to rely on US security guarantees and to take primary responsibility for strategic anxiety and impending attacks. This is consistent with the US National Security and Defense Strategy released by the Biden administration in October 2022.
According to a public survey conducted in November 2022, 68% of respondents supported strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities and addressing the changing realities of the security environment of Japan. Japan, which promised a pacifist constitution, is withering out against American General MacArthur’s imposition after World War II. Japan prefers not to develop nuclear weapons after the United States used two nuclear bombs that forced Japan to surrender to the Allies and ended World War II. But a hard power in fierce opposition to its recognized soft power in international affairs the pacifist nation has reviewed its security policy. Such a shift in security policy might have been unthinkable for governments before the July 2022 assassination of the longest-serving Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe.
It is said that it is hypocritical for Japan to focus on its “exclusive defense orientation” as an outward-looking worldview. A possessive Japan cannot counterattack or foil the enemy’s attack. Thus, Japan’s defense qualms are not unusual for a country focused for a long time on the soft power of the economy and the welfare of its citizens instead of the hard power of international politics and security. The revised “Defense Buildup Program” covering the five fiscal years from 2023 to 2027 would oversee Japan’s total defense expenditure to reach 3 trillion Yen (around 31.5 billion U.S. dollars). It is more than 1.5 times higher than that of the five-year defense budget plan that ends in the next fiscal year.
In the emerging East Asian order with the so-called “peaceful rise” of China, its military activities and defense assertiveness posed “a great strategic challenge” as well as a huge threat to the island nation Japan. Along with China, North Korea, and Russia also cause military and strategic concerns about security, peace, and order in East Asia. Japan’s practice of democracy since 1947 has distinguished itself from other neighbours China, North Korea, and Russia. But the conduct of the Japanese empire is difficult to bury in history for the two Koreas and China, and it was difficult to reconcile the bitter relationship created by Japan’s painful and tormenting actions that it previously unleashed in East Asia. It is difficult for Japan’s neighbours to forget and forgive their brutal past. It should be noted that Japan is the first Asian country to win against the West in the 1904-1905 Russia’s war.
After the post-war world, Japan started on a path of strong economic prosperity. But economic development peaked in the 1970s. After the 1980s, Japan’s economy slowed to its lowest level in 40 years in 2022, including prolonged inflation. Japan was probably the first top economy to overtake the United States in the late 1970s and early 1980s. However, it did not reach the hyperbolic number one status in the international community and this may have been due to some reason or another. After long isolation in the region, Shinzo Abe in 2015 worried about the continuity of security policy outside Japan. Abe designed the Indo-Pacific strategy, instilling the core Asia-Pacific values of democracy, openness, and prosperity among like-minded countries in the region. This political stance of reforming and strengthening Japan’s self-defense forces would meet the security and strategic challenges of its neighbors on the other side of the Sea of Japan.
Similarly, Fumio Kishida has now given his policies a boost amid geopolitical competition and a geostrategic calculation in which authoritarian states undermine freedom, rights, and a world order based on democratic rules. Kishida outlined a plan to increase Japan’s defense ministry’s share to about a tenth of all national spending. That prelude would make Japan the third largest military spender in the world behind the United States and China, according to current budgets. It is unclear whether the Kishida administration will be able to raise the money to pay the bills during the recession. Lawmakers in his Liberal Democratic Party must find ways to raise money to fund new defense spending. Japan’s security strategy is a new development since its pacifist constitution was formulated by American General MacArthur. Such a defense policy could make it easier for Japan to stop an enemy launch pad in the event of a US long-range missile attack. In addition, Japan can strengthen its cyber security.
With this recent shift in security policy, Beijing has urged Tokyo to maintain a bilateral relationship based on cooperation rather than conflict. On the contrary, Japan views China’s military growth as a threat to its peace and security in East Asia. On the same page, Japan sees North Korea’s ballistic missile tests and its brazen missile launch over Japanese territory in November as a threat to its national security. Similarly, Japan opposed Russia’s war in Ukraine and upholds this policy of transatlantic countries. In November, Japan expressed its concern and warned about the Russian military activity in the northern regions (Sakhalin and Kamchatka peninsula) at the extreme eastern borders of Vladivostok. Northern waters and islands are adjacent to Japan’s territorial claims, which have been under Russian control since the end of World War II. Meanwhile, a Japanese document described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “a serious violation of laws against the use of force” that “disturbed the foundations of international order.” Similarly, South Korea protested Japan’s claims to the islands under a small Seoul Coast Guard contingent, islands known as Dokdo in Korea and Takeshima in Japan. Seoul disputed the claim, which was recently mentioned in Japan’s national security strategy, and invited a senior Japanese diplomat to host Seoul’s protest.
Taiwan is also a sore point in the relations between Japan and China. Reuters news agency says that China’s defence budget has more than quadrupled since 2007 when Australia and Japan signed their first defense declaration. A record bespeaks that in 2006, Japanese warplanes scrambled 22 times to intercept Chinese military aircraft in Japanese airspace. Last year, Japanese warplanes scrambled 722 times in response to Chinese aircraft. All this indicates that the post-war East Asian order will challenge Japan’s security and redefine historical revenge. Fumio Kishida looks at Japan’s unfortunate vicinity to close neighbors like North Korea and China and their increasing military activity against changing the post-war status quo. This is the main compelling reason to strengthen and revitalize self-defense forces equipped with a cost-effective action program.
The existential threat of Japan’s war in Ukraine and the strategic and security pressures of the evolving geopolitical environment are forcing Japan to review and reform its overall security posture. Japan is seen as a stabilizer and a reliable soft power against America’s enemies in the region. Focusing on Japan’s strong power is the next step, which will respect if, sometime in this century, Japan convinces itself that dangerous neighbors in a dangerous world are driving a military build-up. It also raises the profile of Japan not only as a country in political instability and economic decline but also as a strong country that wants to see its post-war settlement normalized as a sovereign and independent country. He wants to restore balance to the region not only economically, but also politically and securely.
Japan’s forward defense raises concerns that it may resume an imperial-like posture. As a democratic and freedom-loving country, its competitive advantage over its neighbors is great. This shows that Japan is now showing its strength not only in the economy but also in hard power. But the extent to which this political shift can deter giant China from its realist stance, including security, peace, and order in East Asia, and fully from Japan’s meaningful role in the Quad and its leadership of the IPS, remains to be seen. Thus, it is in the undoubted interest of Japan and its allies to form alliances in the Asia-Pacific region to fight against countries that undermine democracy, freedom, and independence. Prime Minister Kishida and his successors have to make every effort to ensure the protection of the Land of the Rising Sun.
Rajeev Kunwar is a Political Scientist based in Kathmandu
